Saturday, May 12, 2007

Get Ready for 2008


Maybe some of you get tired reading about Rep. Giffords, but so goes Giffords and/or Mitchell, so goes the state. By now everyone knows about the presidents veto of the supplemental funding for the war effort and the congress failure to override the veto. Of course it almost goes without saying that the four Democrats voted to override and the four Republicans voted no.

Interesting how times change. When Arizona had seven congressional districts there were five Republicans and two Democrats. Now Arizona has eight congressional districts and the count is four and four. Arizona is reported as a Republican state having 1,019,220 active registered Republicans where the Democrats post 858,988. But, how about the districts?

CD1 - Republican Rick Renzi. A Democrat district. 138,888 registered Democrats and 118,661 registered Republicans. The Democrats want this district, but so far Rep. Renzi has appealed to the majority of the voters in that district and kept the seat in Republican hands.

CD2 - Republican Trent Franks, a Republican district, 114,127 Democrats to 181,971 Republicans. With over 67,000 more Republicans than Democrats the Republicans would really have to fall on their swords to lose this district.

CD3 - Republican John Shadegg - a Republicans district, 89,170 Democrats to 142,786 Republicans. Over 53,000 is a pretty comfortable lead for the Republicans.

CD4 - Democrat Ed Pastor - a Democrat distinct, 84,032 to 39,555. 44,000 is not a bad lead. It would take a pretty moderate Republican to take that district.

CD5 - Democrat Harry Mitchell - a Republican District, 88,186 Democrats and 138,992 Republicans. More that 50,000 more registered Republicans. What happened? J.D. Hayworth was very popular, yet Mitchell pulled the rug from under him. What is being done to take back that district. Mitchell had to have run a good campaign to smack down a 50,000 registered Republican majority.

CD6 - Republican Jeff Flake - a Republican District, 89,157 Democrats and 180,008 Republicans. Almost 91,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats and CD6. It's hard to see the Republicans losing that seat.

CD7 - Democrat Raul Grijalva - a Democrat District, 126,338 Democrats and 68,844 Republicans. Rep. Grijalva has almost 60,000 Democrats over Republicans to work with and like CD4 is pretty securely in Democrat hands.

CD8 - Democrat Gabrielle Giffords - a Republican District, 128,730 Democrats to 148,403 Republicans. That's almost 20,000 more Republicans than Democrats, Most be something about the 20,000 margin. That's almost what CD1 has in favor of the Democrats, yet a Republican won, and here there is close to the same number the other way, Republican majority, yet a Democrat won in a district that has been held by a Republican for over 20 years.

It is unknown yet just who will be running against the liberal Democrat for this conservative district, CD8. However, some Republican members of CD8 are meeting on 2 June to start the wheels in motion to return CD8 to Republicans.

Jim
Giffords' gotta go

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